Median home prices up in San Jose, San Francisco areas, most U.S. cities

By Alan Zibel  Associated Press

Posted: 08/11/2010 08:08:55 AM PDT
Updated: 08/11/2010 08:08:55 AM PDT

WASHINGTON — Home prices rose in nearly two-thirds of U.S. cities — including the San Jose and San Francisco areas — this spring as buyers took advantage of tax incentives that gave the struggling housing market a temporary jolt.

The median sales price for previously occupied homes rose compared with last year in 100 out of 155 metropolitan areas tracked in the April-to-June quarter, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday. That compares with 91 out of 152 cities in the January-to-March quarter. Fourteen cities had double-digit price increases.

But the boost to the housing market in the second quarter faded shortly after tax credits expired at the end of April. Home sales fell in June and are expected to plunge further in July. Prices are expected to follow in the second half of the year.

The lowest mortgage rates in decades haven’t been enough to energize buyers. Home loan applications were virtually flat last week, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday.

The national median price in the second quarter was $176,900, up from $174,200 in the same quarter last year and up from $166,400 in the January-to-March period.

The median price is the midpoint, which means half of the homes sold for more and half for less. It typically falls in the winter and rises in the summer months. That’s because families with children traditional move during the summer and buy larger homes.

The largest price gain was in Akron, Ohio. Prices there were up 36 percent from a year ago. The San Francisco and San Jose areas, which have mounted a strong rebound from the housing bust, also saw prices rebound by about 25 percent. Prices in the Riverside metro area were up 18 percent from a year ago.

The biggest price drops were in Cumberland, Md., Tucson, Ariz., Ocala, Fla. and Beaumont-Port Arthur, Texas. Prices in all of those cities were down at least 13 percent from last year.

Governor signs home tax credit bill

Governor Schwarzenegger today signed AB 183 providing $200 million for home buyer tax credits. The bill allocates $100 million for qualified first-time home buyers who purchase existing homes and $100 million for purchasers of new, or previously unoccupied, homes.

Eligible taxpayers who close escrow on qualified principal residences between May 1, 2010 and December, 31, 2010, or who close escrow on a qualified principal residence on and after December 31, 2010 and before August 1, 2011, pursuant to an enforceable contract executed on or before December 31, 2010, will be able to take the allowed tax credit.This credit is equal to the lesser of 5 percent of the purchase price or $10,000, taken in equal installments over three consecutive years. Under the bill, purchasers will be required to live in the home as their principal residence for at least two years or forfeit the credit (i.e. repay it to the state). Buyers also must be at least 18 years old and be unrelated to the seller. First-time buyers are defined as those who have not owned a home in the past three years.

To learn more about the California Home Buyer Tax Credit, click here.

2010 Sales to Rise 15 Percent

Home sales will increase 15 percent to about 5.7 million units and REALTOR® income will be up 20 percent in 2010, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun told a packed room of REALTORS® today in a residential economic update at the 2009 NAR Conference & Expo.Yun credited the home buyer tax credit with unleashing sales on the lower-end of the housing market this year, bringing up to 400,000 first-time buyers into the market who wouldn’t have bought otherwise. That influx tightened inventories of starter homes, shored up prices, and helped reduce households’ fear over continuing price drops.

This virtuous cycle will continue now that the federal government has extended the credit to mid-2010 and expanded it to make a smaller credit available to repeat buyers and to households with higher incomes. “The key is stabilizing prices and preserving household wealth,” he says.

Yun predicts the supply of homes to stabilize at the historic norm of six to seven months. Homes above $500,000 will remain elevated in the near-term, but that weakness will be offset by a hefty drop in starter-home inventories, which are running at about a five months supply.

The tightening inventory at all price points will help improve market performance by bringing supply into better balance with demand, but the added sales, particularly on the higher end, will also increase the number and quality of the market comparables used by appraisers to assign valuations. Once appraisals improve, foreclosures will ease, blunting their drag on the market and making it less likely that Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and even FHA will need help from the taxpayer.

“Then we’ll be set for a durable economic expansion,” he said.

New-home sales, which comprise about 10 percent of the market, will continue at suppressed levels–about 550,000 units, down from more than a million during the boom–mainly because builders have scaled projects way back, in part because financing isn’t available.

“Weakness in new-home sales shouldn’t be viewed as tepid demand,” he said.

Even under the most positive economic scenario, unemployment will remain elevated through 2010. Yun is predicting unemployment to stay near double-digits going into 2011, qualifying this recession, as some economists have, as the “Great Recession.”

For the longer term, the huge deficit run up by the federal government to shore up the economy remains the big question mark. Although the deficit is expected to improve each of the next three years, it will remain at historic highs. Unless the federal government releases a credible plan for shrinking it, investors will start to balk and interest rates will need to rise to bring them back. Should inflation be the result, the housing recovery will be set back.

Source: Robert Freedman, REALTOR® magazine

All About Short-Sales

Thinking of Making an Offer on a Short Sale?  What You Need to Know…

Are you looking to buy a new home? Are you thinking that now’s a great time to find bargains? That’s true, but it pays to know a little about the seller’s situation before you make an offer.

If a home is being sold for below what the current seller owes on the property-and the seller does not have other funds to make up the difference at closing-the sale is considered a short sale. Many more home owners are finding themselves in this situation due to a number of factors, including job losses, aggressive borrowing against their home in the days of easy credit, and declining home values in a slower real estate market.

A short sale is different from a foreclosure, which is when the seller’s lender has taken title of the home and is selling it directly. Homeowners often try to accomplish a short sale in order to avoid foreclosure. But a short sale holds many potential pitfalls for buyers. Know the risks before you pursue a short-sale purchase.

You’re a good candidate for a short-sale purchase if:

• You’re very patient. Even after you come to agreement with the seller to buy a short-sale property, the seller’s lender (or lenders, if there is more than one mortgage) has to approve the sale before you can close. When there is only one mortgage, short-sale experts say lender approval typically takes about two months. If there is more than one mortgage with different lenders, it can take four months or longer for the lenders to approve the sale.

• Your financing is in order. Lenders like cash offers. But even if you can’t pay all cash for a short-sale property, it’s important to show you are well qualified and your financing is set. If you’re preapproved, have a large down payment, and can close at any time, your offer will be viewed more favorably than that of a buyer whose financing is less secure.

• You don’t have any contingencies. If you have a home to sell before you can close on the purchase of the short-sale property-or you need to be in your new home by a certain time-a short sale may not be for you. Lenders like no-contingency offers and flexible closing terms.

If you’re serious about purchasing a short-sale property, it’s important for you to have expert assistance. Here are some people you want to work with:

• Experienced real estate attorney. Only about two out of five short sales are approved by lenders. But a good real estate attorney who’s knowledgeable about the short-sale process will increase your chances getting an approved contract. Also, if you want any provisions or very specialized language written into the purchase contract, a real estate attorney is essential throughout the negotiation.

• A qualified real estate professional.* You may have a close friend or relative in real estate, but if that person doesn’t know anything about short sales, working with him or her may hurt your chances of a successful closing. Interview a few practitioners and ask them how many buyers they’ve represented in a short sale and, of those, how many have successfully closed. A qualified real estate professional will be able to show you short-sale homes, help negotiate the purchase when you find the property you want to buy, and smooth communications with the lender. (All MLSs permit, and some now require, special notations to indicate that a listing is a short sale. There also are certain phrases you can watch for, such as “lender approval required.”)

• Title officer. It’s a good idea to have a title officer do an initial title search on a short-sale property to see all the liens attached to the property. If there are multiple lien holders (e.g., second or third mortgage or lines of credit, real estate tax lien, mechanic’s lien, homeowners association lien, etc.), it’s much tougher to get that short sale contract to the closing table. Any of the lien holders could put a kink in the process even after you’ve waited for months for lender approval. If you don’t know a title officer, your real estate attorney or real estate professional should be able to recommend a few.

Some of the other risks faced by buyers of short-sale properties include:

• Potential for rejection. Lenders want to minimize their losses as much as possible. If you make an offer tremendously lower than the fair market value of the home, chances are that your offer will be rejected and you’ll have wasted months. Or the lender could make a counteroffer, which will lengthen the process.

• Bad terms. Even when a lender approves a short sale, it could require that the sellers sign a promissory note to repay the deficient amount of the loan, which may not be acceptable to some financially desperate sellers. In that case, the sellers may refuse to go through with the short sale. Lenders also can change any of the terms of the contract that you’ve already negotiated, which may not be agreeable to you.

• No repairs or repair credits. You will most likely be asked to take the property “as is.” Lenders are already taking a loss on the property and may not agree to requests for repair credits.

The risks of a short sale are considerable. But if you have the time, patience, and iron will to see it through, a short sale can be a win-win for you and the sellers.

For more information regarding Truckee real estate short-sale properties and north Lake Tahoe real estate short-sale properties, please contact me.

* Not all real estate practitioners are REALTORS®. A REALTOR® is a member of the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® and is bound by NAR’s strict code of ethics.

Note: This article provides general information only. Information is not provided as advice for a specific matter. Laws vary from state to state. For advice on a specific matter, consult your attorney or CPA.

Pending Home Sales Down but Housing Affordability at Record

WASHINGTON, March 03, 2009Pending home sales declined on the heels of a weakening economy and with some buyers waiting for clarity on housing stimulus provisions, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index,1 a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in January, fell 7.7 percent to 80.4 from a downwardly revised reading of 87.1 in December, and is 6.4 percent below January 2008 when it was 85.9. The index is at the lowest level since tracking began in 2001, when the index value was set at 100.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the downturn in the economy also weighed heavily on the data. “Even with many serious potential home buyers on the sidelines waiting for passage of the stimulus bill, job losses and weak consumer confidence were a natural drag on home sales,” he said. “We expect similarly soft home sales in the near term, but buyers are expected to respond to much improved affordability conditions and from the $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit.”

The PHSI in the Northeast dropped 12.7 percent to 57.8 in January and is 19.7 percent below a year ago. In the Midwest the index declined 9.2 percent to 72.6 and is 13.8 percent below January 2008. The index in the South fell 11.9 percent to 82.2 in January and is 9.1 percent below a year ago. In the West the index rose 2.4 percent to 103.6 and is 13.5 percent higher than January 2008.

NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said it’s ironic with the weak housing market that affordability conditions have improved dramatically. “Housing affordability is at a record high - the buying power of a typical family has risen significantly,” he said. “With the drop in interest rates, a median-income family can afford a home costing $20,000 more than a year ago for the same monthly mortgage payment. With the strong housing stimulus, we are hopeful inventory will get trimmed and help prices to stabilize in many areas by the end of this year.”

NAR’s Housing Affordability Index rose 13.6 percentage points in January to 166.8, a new record high.2 The HAI, a broad index of affordability using consistent values and assumptions over time, shows that the relationship between home prices, mortgage interest rates and family income is the most favorable since tracking began in 1970.

The HAI indicates a median-income family, earning $59,800, could afford a home costing $283,400 in January with a 20 percent downpayment, assuming 25 percent of gross income is devoted to mortgage principal and interest; affordability conditions for first-time buyers with the same income and small downpayments are roughly 80 percent of that amount. A year ago, the typical family could afford a home costing $263,300.

Yun added, “Conditions have been aligning very favorably for home buyers with the exception of consumer confidence. But I am hopeful that sales will turn around by late spring and early summer because history suggests that home sales can rise even in times of job losses when housing affordability rises.”

# # #

1The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity from 2001 through 2004 parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. There is a closer relationship between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales performance than with month-to-month comparisons.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales.

Each March, NAR Research conducts a review of PHSI seasonal adjustment factors and fine-tunes data for the past three years.

2The Housing Affordability Index is a relative index where a value of 100 means that a family with the median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced existing single-family home, taking into account the relationship between median home price, average effective interest rate for loans closed on existing homes, and median family income. The higher the index, the better housing affordability is for buyers.

The calculation assumes a downpayment of 20 percent and a qualifying ratio of 25 percent of gross income for mortgage principle and interest payments. The index is a general gauge with conditions varying widely around the country. Affordability conditions are lower for first-time buyers with smaller downpayments and less income.

Monthly publication of the index began in 1981 with annual data calculated back to 1970.

Existing-home sales for February will be released March 23; the next Pending Home Sales Index will be on April 1.

For specific Truckee real estate and north Lake Tahoe real estate statistics please  email me.

Scott C. Kennedy

Owner / Broker-Realtor®